Research Round 16 · 7 October 2026
Before the Answer Closes: Detecting Missing Decision Conditions
Research question
At a fixed total inference and source-access budget, does requiring a validated pair of evidence-compatible scenarios with different decisions reduce unsupported commitment more effectively than a strong missing-information checklist, without reducing useful completion or increasing harmful revision?
Summary
Proposes a bounded contrastive sufficiency probe and a separate source-coverage probe for missing decision conditions. Executed finite-world diagnostics cover 6,912 Boolean function-observation pairs and 37 named checks, with twelve developer fixtures. E16-B and H16-1/H16-2/H16-3 are proposed and untested with language models. No new Encevra language-model benchmark, deployment, production change, or calibrated release guarantee.
Major findings
- A supported fact does not establish decision sufficiency: the exact fictional policy counterexample leaves both review decisions possible.
- Exact finite-world enumeration yields 3,778 determined and 3,134 underdetermined pairs among 6,912 pairs. These are checker diagnostics, not model performance.
- A valid decision-changing pair establishes a gap within the modeled scope; failed bounded search does not certify completeness. Scope expansion can reopen a decision.
Experiments
- E16-A Exact finite-world sufficiency diagnostics Executed (diagnostic)
- E16-B Bounded missing-condition study Proposed
Hypotheses
- H16-1 Validated alternatives improve supported task completion and reduce unsupported commitment relative to a strong checklist at the same budget.
- H16-2 Scope discovery helps more when a relevant rule is absent from the representation than when only a named value is missing.
- H16-3 Decision relevance preserves useful completion on sufficient and irrelevant-unknown controls while reducing unsupported closure.
Architecture implications
Proposed mechanism only. No Noetis behavior, release gate, risk value, routing, or production change.
Open questions
- Does validated alternative generation improve supported task completion over a strong checklist at matched budget?
- Does scope discovery help when a relevant rule is absent from the representation?
- Can decision relevance reduce unsupported closure without needless questions or reduced useful completion?
Connected research
Full experimental notes, prompts, internal architecture details and implementation procedures are kept by Encevra Research.
