Can We Intervene for Real? A Fail-Closed Readiness Gate for Active Evidence-Lineage Trials

Can the current Encevra/Noetis workflow execute an active evidence-lineage trial whose causal interpretation is warranted, and what minimum fail-closed protocol is required before E29-B may run?

A deterministic repository-readiness audit found 34 controls: 8 present, 3 partial, 23 absent; 26 critical controls partial or absent; fail-closed verdict BLOCKED. RISE and E30-B are proposed. No live intervention trial, language-model benchmark, production experiment, or Noetis answer-quality benchmark was run.

• 34 controls; 8 present, 3 partial, 23 absent; 26 critical controls partial or absent; fail-closed verdict BLOCKED. The checker validates the declared manifest, not the correctness of the human code review.
• Frozen snapshots, source versions, hashes, packet spans, model traces and usage telemetry are useful foundations but do not establish root-action fidelity, separation or unresolved structural equivalence.

• E30-B Proposed matched-compute shadow trial of the RISE Gate Proposed

• H30.1 At the audited commit, the current E29-B path fails at least one critical Root, Intervention, Separation, Receipt, and Equivalence control.
• H30.2 The dual-path comparator detects at least 80% of injected off-target, partial and false-success actions and improves detection by at least 20 percentage points over signed self-report at the same action count.
• H30.3 Per-arm cache and memory receipts plus canaries reduce undetected contamination by at least 75% relative to logical arm labels alone.
• H30.4 An unresolved-equivalence state reduces false root-independence by at least 30% while retaining at least 70% structural-decision coverage.
• H30.5 Full RISE lowers false-root-independence and harmful revision relative to the best active baseline at matched total compute, without more than a 1.5 percentage-point loss in accuracy or a 2% compute-budget overrun.

RISE is a proposed schema and protocol, not an implemented interface. No production behavior changed.

• Can Round 31 build a sandboxed vertical slice with root identity, a non-destructive root action, independent witness, separation and budget records, and equivalence-aware outcomes before piloting E30-B?

Builds on Round 29, Round 28, Round 10, Round 9.